Archive for: November, 2010

The ‘Facebook killer’ – great minds think alike

Nov 29 2010 Published by Ben Chong under Business trends

My previous article, “Diaspora, Facebook alternative, goes live“, seems to have set some minds ticking.

Brad Pitt-lookalike and founder-CEO of Mashable, Pete Cashmore, wrote an article on CNN.com that repeated essentially the same key points that I made:

  • How Facebook became better than MySpace: “This new feature wasn’t just a “better MySpace” but a completely different approach to social interaction that replaced static pages with streams of constantly updated information.
  • Switching costs: “There are plenty of ways for a social network to fail; the fact that your friends are already on Facebook and not Diaspora is the most obvious issue.
  • That Diaspora and other social networks have to offer a better social experience than Facebook in order to gain market share: “So, if recent history is a guide, Facebook need not worry about Diaspora. Such incremental improvements almost never create new market leaders. Instead, it takes a completely different approach to unseat incumbents.

I am not claiming that Pete Cashmore copied my article. Instead, I’m rather flattered by the validation of the key concepts of my article.

That’s Thought Leadership!

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Diaspora, Facebook alternative, goes live

Nov 24 2010 Published by Ben Chong under Business trends

It’s in open alpha and you can sign up for their mailing list at joindiaspora.com

These guys have a lot of publicity. It remains to be seen how well they will do as a Facebook alternative/replacement. It is not impossible, as Facebook was able to wrest the social media crown from MySpace. But the former is now more entrenched than MySpace was and Diaspora must offer something unique to users that will make the user switching cost (described in my previous post) worth absorbing.

Diaspora’s current user value proposition is privacy and ownership. This is a poke (pun not intended) at Facebook which has a bad reputation (deserved or undeserved) in those areas.

The question is whether users care about that. I suspect that they do, but not enough to switch.

Diaspora and other Facebook alternatives out there (Appleseed, OneSocialWeb, Elgg) have to offer a better social experience in order to gain share from Facebook.

An example is the Facebook status/news feed. This feature was launched a few years after Facebook started. Before that, Facebook had a MySpace-like landing page. As a Facebook user, I find that the feed holds the key value of Facebook: it gives the impression that the user is engaged with friends.

Diaspora needs to identify a similar key feature. When that happens, the trick is to hold on to that as a Diaspora-exclusive experience. That is also not easy as Facebook now has the size and resources to quickly duplicate anything that an upstart can come up with.

Hopefully, I’ll get my Diaspora invitation soon and will be able to try it out and “share” my impressions.

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Social media innovation in the face of the Facebook behemoth

Nov 23 2010 Published by Ben Chong under Business trends

InformationWeek reported on Monday that Facebook now accounts for nearly 25% of pageviews and 10% of Internet visits. This was compared to Google which, with its YouTube property, only accounted for a combined 11.7% of page views.

This data point, along with Facebook’s half a billion users, shows how difficult it is today to create a competing social media offering.

While studying for my MBA at Haas (UC Berkeley), I was a co-chair of the student association’s communications committee. One of our goals was to improve communication between students, who were part-timers and were split between weekend and weekday evening classes. One of the solutions I looked at was Ning, which allows you to create and customize your own online social network.

The feedback I got was “Oh no! Yet another site to log into!”.

Even in those days, a lot of folks were already on Facebook and the reality of social media is that you do spend some time and effort to build up your network of friends and acquaintances. So having to sign on with yet another site and restart the network building process is just too much of a bother. This is the “switching cost” effect.

The popularity of Facebook has not prevented entrepreneurs from considering new approaches to social media. For example, Path is a new site that allows you to share your photos with 50 of your closest friends. The 50-friend limit comes from the observation that while you may have several hundred friends on Facebook, you really only interact with a small subset of them on a regular basis. To quote a wise-cracking social media expert: “Those who are stalking you and those whom you are stalking”.

The other noteworthy aspect about Path is that it does not try to replace other social networks but work alongside them.

This is probably the direction of where social media is going: it is pretty much impossible to replace Facebook at the moment. New innovations in social media will leverage basic Facebook features (user authentication, user status updates and friend networks) and then build additional value on top of Facebook.

An example of this approach is dailymile. This is a site for fitness enthusiasts to write about and keep track of their training. You can either create a separate dailymile login (if you want to remember yet another set of usernames /passwords) or log-in via Facebook. Your dailymile status can also be shared on Facebook.

Essentially, dailymile leverages your existing social network (Facebook) and expands on that to create a separate social network in parallel, as the following graphic illustrates:

When you start using dailymile, you share details about your daily workouts on Facebook. When your Facebook friends see you using dailymile, they also sign up. This creates a snowball effect and results in a sub-network of “shared users”. Your daily workout also appears on the dailymile website which is visible to other dailymile users. They can send you “friend” requests. This creates a secondary sub-network that is external to Facebook.

I have not been on dailymile long enough to see if this external network will be larger than the shared one. It is possible since dailymile caters to a shared interest and passion among its users. Hence, there is a higher propensity for users to want to connect with each other.

Dailymile will probably never replace Facebook, but its approach to social media is a good example of how innovation can take place in spite of Facebook’s ubiquity.

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The Register jumps into the mobile OS / computer history analogy bandwagon

Nov 19 2010 Published by Ben Chong under Business trends

Even “The Register” has jumped on the mobile OS and computer history analogy bandwagon in a new article “Why Microsoft is Acorn and Symbian is the new CP/M“.

While acknowledging the basic fundamental analogy (Android=MSDOS, iOS=Mac OS) that I had laid out in a previous blog, they dig further into British computer history and talk about the BBC Micro, Archimedes (that used the ancestor of today’s ARM chips) and MSX.

El Reg goes one step further and uses the historical analogy to frame what will happen in the next 10 years:

“The point is that the number of desktop operating systems expanded hugely, and then contracted as the majority of people wanted decided to either be different, or run the same software as everyone else.

That left space for two significant players – and all the evidence now points to the mobile industry following a similar course. Only smaller.”

Incidentally, Wozniak has come out to clarify his earlier comments (covered in my earlier blog article) about the Android vs iOS debate.

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